Thomas Herndon

The basic conclusion that countries with indebtedness rates above 90% of GDP have lower growth rates still held, but the most spectacular results disappeared, the relationship was much gentler and there were numerous exceptions to the rule. These results were published on 15 April 2013 as a draft working paper, and in 2014 in the peer-reviewed Cambridge Journal of Economics.

Herndon proved that the paper contained multiple errors, provoking widespread international interest and embarrassment for austerity policymakers. The Reinhart-Rogoff paper was frequently cited during the 2012 U.S. presidential election campaign. It was also frequently cited among policymakers in congress, including in the drafting of the Bowles-Simpson report. However, there are differing views on the actual impact the original paper may have had on policy making.

Thomas Herndon (born 1985) is an assistant professor of economics at Loyola Marymount University, who, as a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts, became known for critiquing "Growth in a Time of Debt", a widely cited academic paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff supporting the austerity policies implemented by governments in Europe and North America in the early 21st century. His research concluded that these measures may not have been necessary.